Baseball Todd's 2004 Predictions
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In October According To Me! |
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Nobody really expected the Florida Marlins to do anything last year and they ended up winning the World Series. Well, I'm here to say that it's time for teams that are expected to win to do so this year. And, I think those two teams are the New York Yankees in the American League and the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League.
Everybody would love to see the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox meet in the World Series. The two snakebitten squads almost did last year and might very well make it this year. But, I just think the Yankees and the Phillies are the best bets this year to play for the world championship.
Picking the Yankees to win the AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST and the AL pennant is easy to do, of course. And, preseason predictions don't mean much since the World Series is never won "on paper." Still, the Bronx Bombers have just about everything a team must have in order to win a pennant. Granted, George Steinbrenner can outspend anybody. But, it's up to the other teams to keep up with this shipbuilder who has amassed quite a boat load of talented players to probably keep New York afloat come October.
Now, A-Rod joins a formidable club that includes Yankee shortstop and captain Derek Jeter (.324), first baseman Jason Giambi (41 HR, 107 RBI), and left fielder Hideki Matsui (.287, 106 RBI.) Free-agent right fielder Gary Sheffield (.330, 39 HR, 132 RBI with Atlanta) will be another big bat in the lineup once he comes back from his injured thumb that he hurt chasing a fly during spring training this year.
Pitcher Kevin Brown (14-9, 2.39 ERA with Los Angeles) helps take the sting away from losing Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to the Houston Astros. Brown will be the No. 2 starter behind Mike Mussina (17-8, 3.40 ERA) on the Yankee staff, which also includes Javier Vazquez (13-12, 3.24 ERA with Montreal) as a starter and Mariano Rivera (40 saves, 1.66 ERA) in the bullpen.
The Yanks have an All-Star now at nearly every position. They sure have the look of a World Series winner. The Boston Red Sox, though, will have something to say about that. They nearly got A-Rod in a trade for Manny Ramirez during the offseason - a deal which was squelched by the union. Still, the Bosox had a decent offseason and may even be better than New York in some respects.
The Red Sox also feature a lineup including shortstop Nomar Garciaparra (.301, 28 HR, 105 RBI), designated hitter David Ortiz (31 HR, 101 RBI), AL batting champ Bill Mueller (.326), the aforementioned Ramirez in left field (.325, 37 HR, 104 RBI), Trot Nixon in right (.306, 87 RBI), Jason Varitek at catcher (25 HR, 85 RBI), and Kevin Millar at first base (25 HR, 96 RBI).
Baltimore made great strides over the winter, getting catcher Javy Lopez (.328, 43 HR, 109 RBI with Atlanta) and shortstop Miguel Tejada (27 HR, 106 RBI with Oakland) plus Rafael Palmeiro (38 HR, 112 RBI with Texas) back from the Rangers. Toronto has Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay (22-7, 3.25 ERA), first baseman Carlos Delgado (.302, 42 HR, 145 RBI), and center fielder Vernon Wells (.317, 33 HR, 117 RBI). Even the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are better this year with center fielder Rocco Baldelli (.289) and DH Aubrey Huff (.311, 34 HR, 107 RBI) leading the way. The AL East will be a competitive race all the way.
The Minnesota Twins are the best team in the AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL in my opinion. They have one of the best players in center fielder Torii Hunter (26 HR, 102 RBI) plus Brad Radke (14-10) on the mound. But, the Twins are not that much better than the Kansas City Royals or the Chicago White Sox, two teams who will pressure Minnesota all the way.
The Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers will try to keep their ships afloat this year. The Tribe has Jody Gerut (.279) to hang their fortunes on at the moment.
The Oakland A's still have one of the best pitching staffs in the majors and that's why I'm tabbing them to win the AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST this campaign. Mark Mulder (15-9), Barry Zito (14-12), and Tim Hudson (16-7) are superb and the A's also picked up Mark Redman (14-9 with Florida) over the winter. Redman's World Series experience with the Marlins last season could help the A's, who don't wilt but can't seem to get over the hump in the playoffs. At the plate, the A's feature an offense which includes first baseman Erubiel Durazo (21 HR, 77 RBI) and third baseman Eric Chavez (.282, 29 HR, 101 RBI) but without Tejada at shortstop, the A's may suffer in the lumber department.
The Seattle Mariners are not that far off the pace, either. Jamie Moyer (21-7) continues to be a veteran ace for the M's while Japanese sensation Ichiro Suzuki (.312, 212 hits) continues to amaze fans with his glove and stick. Veteran DH Edgar Martinez (.294, 98 RBI) is a steady clubhouse presence for Seattle and second baseman Bret Boone (35 HR, 117 RBI) is a sparkplug on offense and around the bag.
The Phillies have only been to the World Series five times during the franchise's entire existence - 1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, and 1993. Only the 1980 squad (with Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Pete Rose, and Tug McGraw) brought home the world title. It's about time the Phils won another one. This year could be their best chance in ages!
The Florida Marlins think they can get back to the World Series with Mike Lowell (32 HR, 105 RBI) at third base as the heart of the offense. The Fish lost catcher Pudge Rodriguez to the lowly Detroit Tigers after only one year - and that will hurt them. Brad Penny (14-10) is showing signs that he is capable of being a great pitcher for Florida. We'll see about the Marlins.
As for the New York Mets and the Montreal Expos... well, fans of these two teams better not get their hopes up. Mike Piazza (.286) may finally switch to first base this year for the Mets, who are in a rebuilding mode. The Expos continue to be a farm team to the other 29 major league clubs - and a team on the verge of moving somewhere else. Puerto Rico, Washington D.C., and a host of other places are trying to lure the Expos, and this may be their final season in Canada. Don't expect anything great from Montreal.
The Houston Astros also have a great staff now that Roger Clemens (17-9 with the Yankees) and Andy Pettitte (21-8 with the Yankees) escaped the Bronx Zoo.
I can't forget about the St. Louis Cardinals, though. They always seem to be in the thick of things with genious Tony LaRussa at the helm. Third baseman Scott Rolen (.286, 104 RBI), shortstop Edgar Renteria (.330, 100 RBI), and center fielder Jim Edmonds (39 HR, 89 RBI) are big bats. Left fielder Albert Pujols (.359, 43 HR, 124 RBI) is the greatest hitter in the game right now - and got cheated out of the MVP award a year ago. Pujols, by the way, is the first player in history to hit .300 with 30-plus homers, 100-plus RBI, and 100-plus runs scored in his first three major league seasons. Not Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb - only Pujols can say that. Wow! Only pitching leaves the Cardinals' fortunes in question. Woody Williams (18-9) was a surprise last year, but Matt Morris (11-8) will have to improve upon his injury-plagued 2003 campaign.
The Milwaukee Brewers, the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates all will battling to stay out of the NL Central basement. Can Ken Griffey Jr. (.247) finally stay away from injury with the Reds? Hopefully so if you are a Reds fan. The Bucs biggest star is catcher Jason Kendall (.325) who may get traded sometime during the season. The Brewers biggest star is Geoff Jenkins (.296, 28 HR, 95 RBI). There's probably not much to be excited about in Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, or Cincy this year.
The NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST might be the hardest division to forecast this year. I really don't see anybody dominating it and I think just about everybody will have a chance to win it if things go right. But, at the moment, I give the edge to the San Francisco Giants.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Diego Padres, and the Arizona Diamondbacks also have the chance to see the playoffs. LA has Hideo Nomo (16-13) and Cy Young Award-winning closer Eric Gagne (55 saves, 1.20 ERA)
Click here to see where some current players rank on the all-time charts!
For your enjoyment, I have also included below the pre-season picks of Baseball Digest, The Sporting News, and Street and Smith's. Tell me what you think about my picks by signing my guestbook. Or, send me an e-mail (click on the @ below) and tell me if you think I'm off my rocker. Good luck to your team in 2004!
There was no bigger acquisition in the offseason this year than New York trading Alfonso Soriano to the Texas Rangers for Alex Rodriguez, who'll play third for the Yankees. A-Rod (.298, 47 HR, 118 RBI, 124 runs) was the 2003 American League MVP and is finally on a proven winner - something he wasn't getting a chance to do down in Arlington, where owner Tom Hicks foolishly put all his chips down on A-Rod's bat and didn't have enough firepower on the mound to keep the "Strangers" competitive.
ALEX RODRIGUEZ
Big guns at the plate and on the hill would seem to be the perfect combination for any pennant winner, particularly the Red Sox who try again to win their first World Series since 1918.
CURT SCHILLINGTake, for example, on the mound, where Boston went out and traded for Curt Schilling (8-9, 2.95 ERA with Arizona.) Schilling is expected to make a big comeback and provide a powerful 1-2 punch with Pedro Martinez (14-4, 2.22 ERA), followed by the likes of Derek Lowe (17-7) and Tim Wakefield (11-7) in the Red Sox rotation - plus newcomer Keith Foulke (43 saves, 2.08 ERA with Oakland) in the bullpen. Indeed, the Red Sox have pitching, something that may prove to do in "The Evil Empire" this fall. The Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays help make the AL East the strongest division in baseball from top to bottom. They might make the playoffs as either a wild card team or division winner - that is, if they played in another division. But, they'll have to settle for battling the Red Sox and Yankees for supremacy in the AL East.
MIGUEL TEJADA
The Tigers? Well, I was actually hoping they would break the 1962 Mets record of most losses on one season in 2003. They didn't but they came darn close. Let's hope manager Alan Trammell can get things steered in the right direction in the Motor City. After all, things couldn't possibly get worse for the Bengals, now could they?KC features Carlos Beltran (.307, 26 HR, 100 RBI) in the outfield and Rookie of the Year Angel Berroa (.287) at shortstop. The Royals picked up former MVP Juan Gonzalez (.294, 24 HR with Texas) during the winter which may help their offense. The Chisox still have sluggers Frank Thomas (42 HR, 105 RBI), Carlos Lee (31 HR, 113 RBI), and Magglio Ordonez (.317, 29 HR, 99 RBI) with Mark Buehrle (14-14) as the ace on the hill. I think both the Royals and Chisox have a chance to win the division - but it's the Twins' race to lose.
TORII HUNTER
I like the M's and Angels a bunch - but not as much as the A's. And, as for the Texas Rangers, forget it. They have no more A-Rod and their pitching stinks, to be blunt. Only Hank Blalock (.300, 29 HR, 90 RBI) and Mark Texiera (26 HR, 84 RBI) were bright spots from last year. Of course, Alfonso Soriano (38 HR, 91 RBI with the Yankees) is in town now. But, he can't carry a ballclub by himself - and shouldn't. Texas needs pitching!
VLADIMIR GUERREROThe Anaheim Angels vastly improved their offense over the winter with free agent outfielder Vladimir Guerrero (.330 with Montreal) coming to town. They also improved their pitching staff with the acquisition of Bartolo Colon (15-13 with the White Sox). Guerrero and Garret Anderson (.315, 29 HR, 116 RBI) will give the Halos some punch for sure. The Angels know how to win under manager Mike Scioscia as their 2002 World Series trophy will attest.
BILLY WAGNERLet's switch gears and look at the NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST where the aforementioned Phils should end the Atlanta Braves' run of 12 straight division titles this season. Philly sports a new closer in Billy Wagner (44 saves, 1.78 ERA with Houston) which is something they sorely needed. Plus, the Phillies have Kevin Millwood (14-12), Randy Wolf (16-10), and Vicente Padilla (14-12) for starters - not a bad staff at all. Throw in the likes of slugger Jim Thome (47 HR, 131 RBI) and Bobby Abreu (20 HR, 101 RBI) along with the fiery managing style of Larry Bowa and you have the formula for a possible World Series triumph. The Braves lost a bunch in the offseason - Javy Lopez, Gary Sheffield, Greg Maddux. That's not easy to overcome. They still have Chipper Jones (.305, 27 HR, 106 RBI) in left field and Andruw Jones (36 HR, 116 RBI) in center. Plus, Russ Ortiz (21-7) gives them a quality ace and John Smoltz (45 saves) continues his stellar work in the bullpen when his elbow is not on the blink. I just think the Braves will fall short this year. They lost too much and J.D. Drew (.289 with St. Louis) is not the answer. He's a fine player but his durability is suspect. Atlanta needs a bonafide slugger or two like Sheffield and Lopez to maintain their edge. They lost that.
CHIPPER JONES
ALBERT PUJOLSThe NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL will be the second most interesting race in the majors behind the AL East. The Chicago Cubs have arguably the best pitching staff in baseball with Kerry Wood (14-11), Mark Prior (18-6), Carlos Zambrano (13-11), and Greg Maddux (16-11 with Atlanta) providing a formidable rotation - not in that order. Sammy Sosa (40 HR, 103 RBI) continues slugging his way to the Hall of Fame. Newcomers Derrek Lee (31 HR, 92 RBI with Florida) at first and Todd Walker (.283 with Boston) at second will help give the Cubs a new look infield. I like the Cubs a bunch with their pitching and Sosa.
The Cards have some questions on the mound which need to be answered.They join Wade Miller (14-13) and Roy Oswalt (10-5) as the big four in Houston. The Astros still have punch in second baseman Jeff Kent (.297, 93 RBI), first baseman Jeff Bagwell (39 HR, 100 RBI) and outfielders Lance Berkman (.288, 93 RBI) and Richard Hidalgo (.309, 28 HR, 88 RBI) leading the offensive attack. Houston will make Chicago earn everything they get this season.
ROGER CLEMENS
and with a big comeback power year from Shawn Green (.280, 19 HR) the Dodgers could still be playing come October. The Padres aren't bad with Ryan Klesko (21 HR, 67 RBI) and Brian Giles (.299, 70 RBI) anchoring that offense. Arizona still has Luis Gonzalez (.304, 26 HR, 104 RBI) and Randy Johnson (6-8), who has to overcome his knee injury for Arizona to succeed. Plus, the Snakes added lean tall slugger Richie Sexson (45 HR, 124 RBI with Milwaukee) in the offseason. Even the Colorado Rockies have a chance - maybe. The Rockies have the hitting in Todd Helton (.358, 33 HR, 117 RBI), Preston Wilson (36 HR, 141 RBI), and Larry Walker (.284). Pitching is a big concern, though. And it usually is in Colorado.
ERIC GAGNEThe Giants, of course, have Barry Bonds (.341, 45 HR, 90 RBI) who brings his six MVP awards to the table as he continues his quest of Hank Aaron's career home run record. I truly think Bonds will get the record in a couple of years - but it pains me to say so because I think Bonds' records over the last four seasons or so are tainted with steroid use. Nevertheless, he is a great player. This gives Frisco an edge in their division. The Giants also have ace Jason Schmidt (17-5) on the mound and I think this club is still solid enough for postseason action.
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