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I Don't See It Happening!

THINGS BASEBALL TODD PREDICTS
WON'T BE SEEN AGAIN AND
RECORDS THAT WON'T BE BROKEN!

1. PETE ROSE'S 4,256 LIFETIME HITS: There is no incentive for a ballplayer in today's game to play as long as Rose did. The average salary of a major league player right now is well over $1 million per season. Guys like Alex Rodriguez in Texas are commanding $25 million a season. If you play just one season in the major leagues at the average salary, you should be financially set for life. Why, then, would anyone want to play as long as Rose did just to set themselves up for a chance to break his mark? It won't happen. Even if someone did play, say, 20 years in the major leagues, he would have to average just under 213 hits a season to match Rose's mark. How amazing is that?

2. NOLAN RYAN'S 5,714 STRIKEOUTS AND 7 NO-HITTERS: Nolan Ryan was a freak of nature. Plus, while he was a superb physical specimen who kept himself in the utmost shape, he was extremely lucky that he didn't throw his arm out any sooner than he did. Throwing a baseball overhand, by the way, is an extremely unnatural movement of the human arm. Women who play college softball, because they throw underhanded, are able to win 30 or more games in a season which isn't much longer than 50 or 60 games. Why? They are able to pitch every other game because their arms are not subjected to the abnormal stress of throwing overhanded. Ryan's feat of 5,714 whiffs is an unmatchable record. For someone to break it, they would have to pitch 20 seasons and average nearly 286 strikeouts per year. As for Ryan's 7 no-hitters, consider that he was provided little run support by his teammates throughout his career. Plus, whenever he threw, the opposing team was usually throwing its ace, too. Naysayers always point out that Ryan was little more than a .500 pitcher. But you have to take into account the lack of run production he was provided. I don't know the number of one run ballgames that Ryan was involved in during his incredible career. I'm sure he won more than his fare share of them. But, I wonder how many times he won by scores of 3-2 and 2-1? I'll bet there weren't many 7-6 or 9-8 ballgames on his ledger!

3. CY YOUNG'S 511 VICTORIES: Though Cy Young pitched nearly 100 years ago, he is still as well known as he was back in his prime. For sure, the Cy Young Award (given to the best pitcher in each league every season) reminds everyone just how great he was on the mound. The top pitching award isn't named after Cy Young by accident! Young won 30 or more games in a season five times. That's 30 wins - not 20 wins - in a season. For a pitcher to break Young's record today, he would have to pitch 20 years and average 26 victories per season. As in the case with Pete Rose's hit record, this is a milestone based on longetivity. With today's players commanding millions of dollars a year for their talents, the incentive to stay in the game long enough just to even have a remote chance of breaking Young's mark is remote. Mark it in stone - this record will never be broken!

4. JOE DIMAGGIO'S 56-GAME HITTING STREAK: In 1941, Joe DiMaggio became a legend when he hit safely in 56 consecutive games. For two months, he had at least one hit in every ballgame he played. Today, purists (like me) lament the fact that the game has become almost like slow-pitch softball. With 30 teams, the quality of pitching is watered down. But, I don't care if every pitcher in the major leagues were no better than the caliber of average college pitchers. The luck involved in getting at least a squib hit or a blooper to the outfield for 56 straight contests is phenomenal. Sure, it helped that DiMaggio was one of the greatest hitters the game has ever known. But, with luck on his side, he was able to forge one of the game's unbreakable records. The closest anyone has come to him since was Pete Rose with his 44-game streak in 1978 with Cincinnati. That's still 12 games short of DiMaggio and everyone who remembers Rose's streak remembers how tough it was for him. To string together that kind of streak again in today's game would be unfathomable. Forget the quality of pitching today. You still have relief pitchers who come in at a manager's whim to put out the fires. Plus, today's media would make it too tough to keep a sane mind. I just don't see DiMaggio's record ever being broken.

5. JOHNNY VANDER MEER'S TWO CONSECUTIVE NO-HITTERS: Okay, I can see someone like Randy Johnson (who recently recorded 20 strikeouts in one game) getting two straight no-hitters. I can see it happening because, during this 2001 season, the strike zone being enlarged has helped pitchers to a degree. And, giving someone like Johnson any kind of advantage helps. So, he could match it. But, break Vander Meer's record and throw THREE straight no-hitters? That's not going to happen.

6. TY COBB'S LIFETIME .367 BATTING AVERAGE AND 12 BATTING TITLES: To loosely quote Crash Davis from the movie Bull Durham, to hit .367 in one season is a career for some guys. Cobb AVERAGED that for his career. And, with 12 batting titles to his credit, he proved that year in and year out, he was the greatest average hitter who ever lived. Every once in a while, you see someone today hit .370 or something to lead his league in batting. The next season, the same guy may "slump" to .330. Cobb never slumped until he got to be 42 years old in 1928, when he "only" hit .323.

7. RICKEY HENDERSON'S CAREER STOLEN BASE RECORD: This is another record (like Rose's and Young's) that will not be broken because of the longetivity factor and the reality that today's players just don't have the drive or incentive to chase it. Plus, the emphasis on speed has been greatly reduced. With more players hitting more homers in this day and age, there is less of a need to manufacture runs via the base on balls, the stolen base, and the hit-and-run. Guys like Henderson are a dying breed. His total before the 2001 season was 1,370 stolen bases. Despite the fact that Henderson is rather surly and rude, he is still the greatest base stealer of all-time and the greatest leadoff hitter who ever played. His record will never be broken - at least in my lifetime.

8. ROGERS HORNSBY'S .424 BATTING AVERAGE IN 1924: Considering the fact there hasn't been a .400 hitter since Ted Williams in 1941, I think that someone cracking Hornsby's record is remote. Hornsby's .424 batting average in 1924 with the Cardinals is the highest batting average recorded in one season since the "modern era" began in 1900. I think eventually someone will hit .400 again (someone like Todd Helton of the Rockies or Nomar Garciaparra of the Red Sox). But, they won't be able to push their average past Hornsby - unless, of course, they get off to a very hot start and then get hurt (but still have enough at-bats to qualify for the batting crown). This is the only way Hornsby's mark could be broken. Even so, if someone were to break it in such a manner as I have mentioned, it would be tarnished in many people's eyes since it wasn't accomplished over a "full season." Hornsby had 227 hits in 536 at-bats for St. Louis in '24.

9. CAL RIPKEN'S 2,632 CONSECUTIVE GAMES PLAYED: Consider this for a moment. Was Ripken really the type of player who should have been in the lineup every day for, say, the last 600 or 700 games of his streak? I say probably not. However, because Ripken was a leader and a beloved player among baseball fans, he was given the benefit of the doubt and left alone as he chased Lou Gehrig's record of 2,130 straight games. This is not a knock on Ripken. I like him and what he stands for. He is one of the last true great players who appreciates the history of the game and even holds it sacred (unlike so many of today's overpaid crybabies who have little knowledge of the game's past and don't care to know). But, I think Ripken hurt the Orioles at times with his sub-par play during the later stages of his streak. There were also some times when his injuries were detrimental to his squad. He lacked range and mobility in the field. His bat speed went down. To his defense, Ripken deserved the benefit of the doubt because he played so darn good during the first 1,900 games of his streak. I would trade 1,900 "good Ripken" games for 732 "not-so-great Ripken" games in a heartbeat. Don't expect to see another Ripken in the future.

10. DENNY McLAIN'S 31 VICTORIES IN 1968: Denny McLain is the last pitcher to win 30 or more games in a season. He went 31-6 in 1968 with the Detroit Tigers when they won the World Series. To do that, McLain completed a league-leading 28 games and hurled a whopping 336 innings. The other day, I saw Roger Clemens pitch seven or eight innings of shutout baseball against the Minnesota Twins, the hottest team in baseball. But, Yankees manager Joe Torre yanked him and put in a reliever. The Yankees won the ballgame and Clemens got the victory. But, what if the bullpen had blown the lead? No win for Clemens. Relief pitchers today are so much a part of the game, it would be foolish for a manager not to use his bullpen to the fullest. However, starting pitchers will suffer in terms of victories blown by their bullpens. They also suffer today in terms of getting victories because of five-man pitching rotations. In McLain's day, there were only four-man rotations. There were extra chances for McLain to pitch and get wins. Therefore, unless strategy changes, you won't see another pitcher win 30 games in a season. Heck - it's already tough enough for them to win 20 ballgames a year!

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